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    Market Review

    The month gone by – A snapshot

    Global markets: Global equity markets rallied in February on expectations that policymakers will enable a soft landing of the global economy. Heightened expectations around the economic possibility of Artificial Intelligence helped market sentiments as well as the technology sector. Among major developed economies, US continues to be an outlier with resilient economic growth. Eurozone’s economic growth has stalled, while UK and Japan are in a recession.  

    Recent data from US indicates that the process of disinflation has slowed down. While Fed’s narrative around monetary easing continues to be positive, markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts than what they were expecting earlier.  

    MSCI World Index rallied by 4% in February, while MSCI Emerging Market index increased by 5%. MSCI India delivered a 3% return. Crude oil prices increased by 2% last month, largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    Economy: India Q3 FY 2024 GDP data surprises positively

    India’s GDP growth during Q3 FY2024 was better than expected at 8.4% y-y. The Gross Value Added (GVA) growth was muted at 6.5%. Manufacturing and services sectors showed robust expansion. However, volatile weather conditions led to a decline in agricultural sector output. There has been marginal growth in private consumption, which remains below its past trend.

    High frequency data such as GST collections, automobile sales and Purchasing Managers Index suggest that economic activities continue to remain robust in the current quarter. The GDP growth estimate for FY 2024 GDP has been raised to 7.6%. 

    Equity markets: Resilient performance continues

    Indian equities remained steady as global equities saw a strong up move led by buoyancy in developed markets as well as a rebound in Chinese equity markets. Nifty index was up 1.3%, while Mid and Small cap indices took a breather. The Oil & Gas and Automobile sectors outperformed while Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and Private Banks underperformed. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth USD 1bn in February.

    Outlook: The recently concluded corporate results season point towards sustained improvement in corporate profitability driven by subdued input costs and steady topline growth. Corporate balance sheets remain strong with continued deleveraging. The outlook for corporate earnings remains positive led by strong government capex, steady demand growth in discretionary consumption and improvement in global macro-economic situation. We continue to remain positive on Indian equity markets from a medium to long term perspective.

    Fixed Income market: RBI maintains cautious stance on inflation

    Retail inflation in January eased to 5.1% y-y from 5.7% in December. In the recent monetary policy meeting, RBI maintained a cautious stance and kept policy rates unchanged. RBI Governor Das mentioned that ‘monetary policy must remain vigilant and not assume that our job on the inflation front is over’. Most analysts expect RBI to keep policy rates unchanged, and initiate rate cuts towards later part of the year.

    Outlook: Higher than expected inflation in the US led to markets pushing back expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. This led to nearly 30bps increase in 10-year US Treasury yields last month.

    Domestic yields, however, belied the global trend, and fell by 7bps in February. This was largely due to purchase by foreign portfolio investors as well as expectations of lower supply next year. Given the favourable demand-supply backdrop, we expect domestic yields to show a declining trajectory, going forward. However, the outcome of general elections as well as geo-political developments remain key monitorables.

    Disclaimer

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